The Growth, Decline and Survival of Small Businesses: An Exploratory Study of Life Cycles

Using U.S. Census Bureau special tabulations, we follow a cohort of small (single-establishment) firms formed in 1992 and a cohort of fast growers to 2002 to track their employment changes. Explorative findings showed growing firms as generally a constant share of the economy with a minor business cycle effect, growing firms outnumbering decliners, new firms not growing much, and fast growers in a given year tending to revert to the mean in the following year. The findings are presented as an opening statement, but are far from final salvo into the discussion of small-firm growth.