Port Investment Strategies under Uncertainty: The Case of a Southeast Asian Multipurpose Port1

Port investment decisions are mainly related to productivity improvement strategies or capacity expansion leading to higher capacity utilization and financial performance. The authors propose an investment decision-making process for future port infrastructure investments taking into account various uncertainties, which can impact the return of the investment over the project's useful life. The methodology has been applied on the expansion evaluation of warehousing facilities in a multipurpose port. For the evaluation of the alternatives, the expected net present value (ENPV) is based on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Results show that the investment strategy for a new 4-level warehouse with a flexible option was the optimal choice when compared with strategies of similar scale. However, depending on the emphasis placed on the various investment metrics the optimal investment strategy seems to be closer to a non-flexible 5-level warehouse.