Economic and Demographic Effects of Public Pension Expenditures: The Case of Türkiye

This study aims to provide important findings on Turkey's social security system by analysing the economic and demographic factors affecting public pension expenditures. The short and long-run effects of GDP per capita, public debt, tax revenues and elderly dependency ratio on public pension expenditures are evaluated by ARDL bounds testing method using annual data for the period 1980-2019. The results of the analysis reveal that GDP per capita decreases public pension expenditures in the long run, while public debt has a positive effect on these expenditures. While the effect of tax revenues was found to be limited, the elderly dependency ratio was found to be the strongest determinant of public pension expenditures. In the short run, the error correction model shows that the system quickly returns to long-term equilibrium. The study highlights the importance of social security reforms and demographic policies and provides policy recommendations to enhance fiscal sustainability. However, the study is limited by the topicality of the period and does not include other factors such as health expenditures or labour market dynamics. In this context, the findings provide important guidance for Turkey as well as for countries facing similar problems. The study offers an original contribution to the restructuring of social security systems.