Explaining the Married Women’s Fertility in Reproductive Ages in Iran Using Hierarchical Linear Model

Objective (s): Regarding changes in women’s fertility in Iran, this study attempted to explain fertility changes of married women aged 15-49 years old in Iran at individual and province level. Methods: The data were extracted from the Census 2016 and some of the province data were analyzed based on hierarchical linear model through HLM software. Results: The findings showed that individual characteristics had a larger impact on fertility than province characteristics impact. Womenchr('39')s fertility difference by province was significant. All individual characteristics had a significant impact on fertility and it explained a total of 44% of variance of womenchr('39')s fertility. Also, about 46% of variance of interprovincial childbearing was explained through characteristics for provinces in this study. Conclusion: Since currently the socio-economic development indexes are sub-optimal, more intense decline in fertility is likely and the relative continuity of the current fertility level is to be expected.