Sensitivity of future regional and global energy markets and macroeconomic activity to a hypothetical global energy market disruption

emissions against two dramatically different reference scenarios. Relative to our first reference scenario, we find that fossil fuel exports contribute roughly one-half-trillion dollars/year to Russian GDP in 2050. We find that by 2050 global GDP is largely unaffected by the loss of Russian fossil fuel exports with all the benefits accruing to non-Russian energy exports, e.g., the Middle East. We track transmission mechanisms including net exports, energy services, and capital and labor market feedback.