Dependency of the elderly and expectation of independent living at birth in Japan

We defined the depenadency level of the elderly, and calculated the annual transition probability of dependency level in Japan. Then incorporating this transition probability into a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM-II, we calculated expected years of each dependency level from birth for future years, applying the life table method. In this way, expectation of independent living at birth was obtained from the simulation, and we conclude that although extension of Healthy Life Expectancy is desirable, extension of Expectation of Independent Living is more important as a public health objective.