Theorising scenario analysis to improve future perspective planning in tourism

In contrast to its contribution to world affairs, tourism research diffuses and applies theoretical concepts and techniques more frequently than it generates them. The impact and complexity of tourism elevates the need for its future pathways to be sustainable and theoretically underpinned. A popular mechanism that might address this need is scenario analysis, but it relies upon broadly based praxis rather than theory. Scenario analysis seeks to contribute to sustainability by proposing hypothetical future environments that expose the structures and dependencies of current states of affairs, thus testing their ongoing resilience or appropriateness under different evolutionary pressures. This paper describes the nature of scenario analysis, its methodological necessities and articulated criticisms with reference to tourism and non-tourism exemplars. It explains the three broad methodologies used in establishing scenarios: “La Prospective”, “Driving Forces” and “Extreme Worlds”. It advances a platform for applying scenario analysis based upon the theories of cause and inference articulated by Charles Sanders Peirce (1839–1914). The outcome is a set of four theoretical criteria or benchmarks that improve the resilience of scenarios in tourism planning and policymaking. “Tourism 2023: Four scenarios, a vision and a strategy for UK outbound travel and tourism” is discussed and critically analysed.