It is shown that the traditional choice for the initial smoothed statistics in general exponential smoothing leads to the same forecasts as the equivalent ARIMA model, provided that one uses zero starting values for the initial shocks. In addition, an initialization which uses ‘backforecasts’ as initial smoothed statistics is considered, and its relationship to unconditional least squares is explored.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Ledolter et al. (1984) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 3 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: