Predictive Modeling Of Work Accidents Using Lagging Safety Indicators: Perspectives On Social Security Transformation In The 21st Century

The 21st century has introduced complex and evolving risks that challenge the resilience and adaptability of social security systems. Among these, work accidents and occupational disabilities continue to pose persistent threats to labor force stability, income security, and long-term well-being. As technological transformations reshape the nature of work and global crises—such as the COVID-19 pandemic—expose vulnerabilities in workplace protections, the need to reassess and strengthen occupational risk frameworks becomes increasingly urgent. This article positions occupational risk management within the broader context of modernizing social security frameworks. It advocates for the integration of digital tools and predictive analytics into safety monitoring systems to enhance responsiveness to emerging labor market Dynamics, it examines the characteristics of lagging indicators in occupational health and safety, and includes reactive and proactive solutions, respectively. Using data on work accidents in Türkiye from 2013 to 2023, time series analysis, correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, and predictive models were developed. The relationships between lagging indicators and outcomes such as accidents and fatalities and their effects analyzed. The results underscore the significance of taking preventive actions to minimize accidents in the workplace and illustrate how lagging indicators can be utilized to guide upcoming safety initiatives. Lagging indicators can also serve as predictive tools when used proactively. These findings highlight the need for continuous monitoring and the importance of targeted interventions to improve occupational health and safety outcomes. By linking empirical findings to contemporary policy challenges—such as adapting to new employment models and mitigating inequalities—the study contributes to discussions on building resilient, inclusive, and future-ready social protection systems.