The evolution of China’s ballistic missile defense

China’s 2025 Military Parade is the first time in which China has publicly revealed a ballistic missile defence system capable of midcourse interception and challenges China’s traditional opposition toward national missile defence systems. Using Chinese writings, we argue that China’s ballistic missile defence systems are driven by the need to deter nuclear blackmail, protect leadership and essential point targets, and to support far seas protection concepts. This analysis traces China’s ballistic missile defence ambitions to the creation of strategic early warning systems and demonstrates how increased nuclear and conventional ballistic missile threat perceptions have shaped China’s ballistic missile defence posture.