Body mass index and the risk and prognosis of acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE: BMI has been indicated to be associated with prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the relationship between BMI and the risk of AP development is still unresolved. We examined this association by conducting a detailed meta-analysis. We also assessed its prognostic role by including more researches. METHODS: Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE through March 31, 2011. There were two end points in this meta-analysis: the risk of AP development and the outcome of AP (including severity, local complications, systemic complications, and mortality). Summary relative risks (SRRs) with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Compared with normal weight individuals, obese individuals (BMI>30 kg/m²) had an increased risk of AP development (SRRs 1.34, 95% CI: 1.07-1.68), with significant heterogeneity among these studies (P=0.002, I²=77.2%). In addition, compared with nonobese patients, obese patients developed significantly more severe AP (SRRs 1.82, 95% CI: 1.44-2.30), systemic complications (SRRs 1.71, 95% CI: 1.17-2.50), local complications (SRRs 2.32, 95%CI: 1.79-3.00), and mortality (SRRs 2.21, 95% CI: 1.28-3.83). There was no heterogeneity among these studies. CONCLUSION: Findings from this meta-analysis indicated that obesity is not only associated with an increased risk of AP development, but it is also a poor prognostic factor for AP.