Polycentricity or Dispersion?: Changes in Center Employment in Metropolitan Sydney, 1981 to 1996

Much recent literature in urban studies, geography, and planning portrays an inexorable evolution toward polycentricity as a new “postmodern” metropolitan form. However, detailed and comparable empirical investigations, at once both comprehensive and disaggregated, are more elusive. A study by Gordon and Richardson (1996) of employment trends in Los Angeles—the archetypal polycentric metropolis—produced the surprising conclusion that a process of generalized dispersion rather than a clustering in major suburban subcenters seemed well established for the period 1970 to 1990. This paper adapts the Gordon-Richardson methodology to an investigation of centered versus noncentered employment trends in Sydney, Australia, between 1981 and 1996. Based on a detailed statistical analysis, the study suggests some parallels to the Los Angeles experience in the 1980s but uncovers a recentralization trend in the 1990s. The findings underline the importance of locality-specific factors and the need for further systematic and comparative research.