do Mfantse fish sellers estimate probabilities in their heads?

This paper describes how Mfantse fish sellers deal with choice under uncertainty. An alternative is offered to economists' cognitively unrealistic assumption that decision makers calculate probability distributions to assess the riskiness of uncertain outcomes. Fish sellers appear to minimize risks not by refusing to take risks above a minimum acceptable probability of loss, but by refusing to market their fish if any one of several discrete tests indicates unfavorable market conditions, a “multiple check” strategy derived from sellers' verbal reports.