Probabilistic Structural Durability Prediction

Anefe cientreliability analysis method fordurability of structural components subjected to external and inertial loads with time-dependent variable amplitudes is presented. This method is able to support reliability analysis of crack-initiation and crack-propagation lives of practical applications, considering uncertainties such as material properties, manufacturing tolerances, and initial crack size. Three techniques are employed to support the probabilistic durability prediction: 1 ) strain-based approach for multiaxial crack-initiation-life prediction and linear elastic fracture mechanics approach for crack-propagation-life prediction, 2 ) statistics-based approach for reliability analysis, and 3 ) sensitivity analysis and optimization methods for searching the most probable point (MPP) in the random variable space to compute the fatigue failure probability using the e rst-order reliability analysis method. A two-point approximation method is employed to speed up the MPP search. A tracked-vehicle roadarm is presented to demonstrate feasibility of the proposed method.