Patterns of Crisis Management

This study focuses on the management of international crises from 1945 to 1979, with an emphasis on cases in the Arab-Israel conflict. A Protracted Conflict-Crisis Model is presented and tested. The findings indicate that Arab-Israel crises are distinctive, but not because of the their geographic location. Instead, as predicted by the model, patterns of crisis management appear to depend on whether or not a crisis occurs within a protracted conflict. This discovery suggests that the profile of an international crisis, notably the extent of violent behavior and superpower activity, can be anticipated more reliably in terms of the concept of protracted conflict.