Pessimism-optimism and risk taking in individual and group contexts.

Choice-dilemmas items were administered with the customary risk-taking format (minimal acceptable odds to warrant recommendation of the desirable risky alternative) and with a pessimism-optimism format (estimation of the actual real-world probability of sUCCess of the desirable risky alternative). Following individual testing to establish base-line levels, subjects were randomly assigned to either a risk-pessimism or pessimism-risk treatment. In the former, discussion to consensus was focused on the risk dimension, and subsequent pessimism-optimism judgments were made privately; in the latter, discussion to consensus was focused on the pessimism-optimism dimension, and subsequent risk decisions were made privately. Results indicated that the link between risk and pessimism was asymmetrical. The risky shift was produced only when discussion was oriented along the risk-taking dimension. In contrast, pessimistic shifts were obtained following both risk-oriented and pessimism-oriented discussions. Group-induced pessimism was attributed to pooling or heightened realization of the "things that might go wrong" in pursuing a risky course of action.