The Use of Simulation in the Evaluation of Economics and Management of Turkey Production: Dietary Nutrient Density, Marketing Age, and Environmental Temperature

Maximization of profit in a turkey or broiler operation involves decisions about marketing age, dietary nutrient density, and ambient temperature as determined by fuel input. These interacting factors are dependent nonlinearly on the rate of growth as determined by the sex, breed, and husbandry conditions used; current prices of important production components such as feed; and cost of the day-old bird. Based on experiments with turkeys and chicks, production functions have been formulated in a simulation model capable of predicting performance under different environmental and dietary conditions. With the aid of simulation, expenses as well as income can be computed. These are discounted and the average daily net return is calculated. The most economical set of production conditions can then be selected. In addition, the program calculates the feeding schedule appropriate for the environmental temperature during the growing period and the bird density to be used at a given marketing age, including cumulative mortality. Using the program, the effects of environment, dietary energy density and the price of the day-old bird were evaluated. Model predictions were validated by comparison of the predicted values with the results of a Minnesota feeding trial (Waibel et al, 1976). The predicted body weights at 27.2 C were about 4% lower than the observed values. Energy intake was underestimated by about 12%, probably due to the additional needs in Minnesota resulting from activity, routine wastage, and high dietary protein concentration. The usefulness of the present model is discussed.