Probability of Collision: Valuation, variability, visualization, and validity

Probability of collision ( P c ) is becoming more popular as a tool to assess conjunction threats. In this paper, an overview of the types of P c estimation techniques is provided. For each technique, the inputs it requires are delineated. Three-dimensional tools are then presented for depicting the variability of the P c inputs to P c estimates. These depictions are used to quantify the quality of P c input data required to yield actionable P c estimates. Relationships between Mahalanobis space and P c are presented and used to derive bounding values for Type I and II errors.