Are “Parole Failures” Parolees When They Fail? Incorporating Supervision Terms and the Timing of Arrest Events into Parolee Recidivism Rates

Many studies have found that parolees experience high rates of recidivism after they are released to their communities. However, it is not clear whether these failures occur during the course of supervision or after the completion of the parole term. This study uses data from prison releases in a large Northeastern state from 2005 to 2007 ( n = 28,869) and a three-year follow-up period to describe the timing of rearrest events as they relate to the term of active parole supervision. The findings indicate that about 63% of unconditional releases and 54% of parolees are rearrested within three years of their release. But approximately 55% of arrested parolees were rearrested after the completion of their supervision term. Parolees who were rearrested after parole completion differed significantly from those who were rearrested during the course of their supervision on several pertinent predictors of recidivism, including age, gender, ethnicity, instant offense type, and criminal history. Cox regression models indicate that when only arrests for parolees during the course of their supervision are considered, the impact of parole is associated with an approximate 22 percentage point decrease in the hazard rate when compared to a method that includes arrests that occur after the culmination of the supervision term. Our discussion presents the implications of different definitions of parolee failure for measuring recidivism rates as well as for criminal justice policy.