Application of sequential Monte Carlo simulation to evaluation of distributions of composite system indices

The reliability of composite generation and transmission systems with time varying loads at each bus can be effectively assessed using the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. This method can also provide information on the distributions of the adequacy indices, which is not possible with other nonsequential approaches. The approach presented uses an annual chronological load curve for each load bus and a sequential Monte Carlo approach for composite system reliability assessment. The paper presents the basic sequential simulation technique and illustrates its application to obtain distributions of the various composite system indices for the IEEE reliability test system.