Backtest analysis demonstrates insufficient sample size for USD/CHF directional filters, suggesting high overfitting risk and reduced long-term trade throughput.
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No rule survives. The +3.6pp win-rate improvement is based on n=88, which is too small to distinguish signal from noise in a low-frequency pair like USDCHF. The backtest improvement may be period-specific or driven by a few outlier trades. The live window shows zero USDCHF LONG trades, meaning the filter would have no effect now and could block future SHORT opportunities that might be profitable under E8 geometry timing. The FADE polarity edge already validated at scale does not require a directional filter on a single pair — this introduces unnecessary constraint without proven compatibility with Gods-Clock rhythm logic. EXPECTED IMPACT: Negligible or negative. Win-rate might appear to rise slightly if the filter happens to block losing SHORTs, but total trade count drops, reducing system throughput and diversification. Over 3-6 months, risk-adjusted returns likely degrade. RISK: Overfitting to a small sample; reduced trade frequency on USDCHF could mis Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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