The Religion Factor in Voting Decisions: Inspecting Its Influence via Emotion, Moral Evaluation, and Issue Congruence in the 2024 Presidential Election

This study examined whether and how people’s religious affiliation affected their voting choices in the 2024 presidential election. A nationwide survey of a representative sample (N = 1,486) was conducted prior to the election. Social Identity Theory and the Michigan model of voting behavior provide the theoretical linkage between religious belonging and mediators of its influence on voting choice. We also test issue congruence and perceptions of each candidate’s morality as mediators. Finally, we include political party identity to see how these identities interact. The intentions of voters from four major religious affiliations—Protestants, Catholics, other religions, and people without religion—were compared, with party identification’s moderation included in the model. Emotions voters harbor toward candidates, perceived issue congruence, and moral evaluation were also incorporated as mediating factors of religion’s influence. Results show that religious affiliation played a significant role in forming voting choices. Political ID moderated religious affiliation’s influence—particularly, Democrat’s positive influence on Catholics in supporting Harris and Republican’s negative influence on people of other religions in supporting Trump. Enthusiasm and fear were significant emotions for mediating religious belonging’s influence on support for both candidates; yet fear was significantly positive for predicting Trump support for voters with religion affiliation. Moral evaluation and issue congruence were also significant mediators of religion for both candidates.