Cohort analysis reveals subjective life expectancy in youth predicts long-term pension wealth, indicating that early survival beliefs influence retirement savings via job formality.
Survival beliefs elicited at ages 18-26 predict later pension contributions. A 1-SD-higher life expectancy is linked to 5% more pension wealth 15 years later. Job formality, not labor force participation, drives most of the pension gap. This SLE-pension link grows over the life cycle, from 2.5-5% at ages 18-26 to 9-11% at ages 48-52.
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Lucas Finamor (2026) studied this question.
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