Econometric analysis reveals club convergence and widening green productivity gaps across 278 cities, indicating that green transition paths are not predetermined by initial endowments.
This study asks whether green total factor productivity (GTFP) converges across Chinese cities. Using SBM-GML efficiency estimates for 278 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2022, we apply the Phillips–Sul log-t test and an ordered logit model. Overall convergence is rejected: four convergence clubs and a divergent group emerge, and relative transition paths widen rather than narrow, producing a K-shaped pattern. Global Moran’s I shows no stable spatial autocorrelation over the study period. Initial 2010 conditions do not predict club membership. The results suggest that green transition trajectories are not predetermined by initial endowments.
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Zou et al. (2026) studied this question.
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