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Survey analysis finds limited impact of the Gaza war on national voter choice in the 2024 US presidential election, suggesting foreign policy attitudes did not shift the overall outcome.
To what extent did the Israel–Hamas war in Gaza affect voting in the 2024 U.S. presidential election? To address this question, analysis employs two data sets, the 2024 AP NORC Votecast study and the 2024 Cooperative Election Study (CES). Results indicate that while voter attitudes had statistically significant effects on voting, the impact was not strong or widespread enough to affect the outcome of the election, at least regarding national vote totals. Furthermore, Kamala Harris’s balanced approach, supportive of Israel’s right to defend itself coupled with sympathy for the Gazans and the political rights of Palestinians, did not appear to hurt her among voters, again regarding the national vote. Plus, there is little indication that opinion on the war increased abstention or voting for third-party candidates at the national level.
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Jeffrey Е. Cohen (2026) studied this question.
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