Willis K. G. (1983) Spatial variations in crime in England and Wales: testing an economic model, Reg. Studies 17, 261–272. This article examines variations in crime rates for three offence groups—violence against the person, sexual offences, and theft—between police force areas in England and Wales for 1979. A simultaneous-equations model is used to link measured crime rates with the conviction rate, expenditures on police and police manpower. Spatial variations in crime rates can be predicted by spatial differences in risk of capture, punishment, police protection, unemployment, etc., but environmental factors (unspecified) still remain significant.
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Ken Willis (1983) studied this question.
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