An exact analytical method for evaluating the outage probability due to second-order polarization mode dispersion in a system with first-order compensation is presented. In an uncompensated system the outage is mainly due to the mean differential group delay, whereas higher order effects have low impact. It is shown that in a compensated system all orders contribute to the outage probability, whereas accounting for exact second-order only gives a slight overestimate. Approximate second-order models leaving residual higher order effects may lead to very different outage probabilities.
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Forestieri et al. (2004) studied this question.
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