Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output loss by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock.