Investigating the impact of e-bikes on modal share and greenhouse emissions: a system dynamic approach

This study employs the ASTRA strategic system dynamics model to investigate the impact of electric bikes (e-bikes) on modal split in Europe at urban level. The resulting reduction of kilometers travelled by conventional internal combustion means of transports will consequently affect the amount of greenhouse emissions (GHG). This paper contributes in quantifying this impact employing an updated ASTRA model version testing the impact of the e-bike in both the baseline scenario (until 2050) and in a policy scenario where car vehicles entering in urban areas are charged. Both scenarios’ results show a relevant growth of electric bikes’ share until 2050, highlighting a considerable difference between the leading countries (The Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Finland) with respect to the rest of Europe. Interestingly, the advent of the e-bike reduces the trips performed with the other modes but also induces new trips. Urban areas greenhouse gas emissions, that already decline in the baseline scenario, are affected by a further reduction in the policy scenario.