Simulation study demonstrates improved warning time and distance using neutrino light-curve analysis in massive stars, highlighting enhanced early detection for core-collapse supernovae.
Massive stars ( M > 8 M ⊙ ) emit neutrinos known as presupernova (pre-SN) neutrinos through thermal and nuclear interactions for cooling the stellar core during the final stage of stellar evolution. Real-time monitoring of their pre-SN neutrino interaction rate offers a crucial opportunity to issue an early warning to a core-collapse supernova. Some neutrino detectors, including KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande (SK), already operate pre-SN alarm systems based on a statistically significant excess of the observed event rate over the expected background. To improve alarm sensitivity, an alarm method that incorporates the time evolution of the observed pre-SN neutrino event rate was proposed in A. Sheshukov et al. We evaluate the performance of the light-curve likelihood approach under realistic KamLAND and SK operating conditions, including realistic background rates, global false-alarm-rate calibration, and the combined alarm. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the alarm time and distance compared to the conventional rate-only method, while maintaining the same false-alarm rate.
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Saito et al. (2026) studied this question.
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