How Travel-Scenario Factors Shape the Substitution of Ride-Hailing Services by “Metro+” MaaS Intermodal Trips: Evidence from Beijing MaaS

Mobility as a service (MaaS) has emerged as a means to promote multimodal public transport and shared mobility trips, with the “Metro+” integrated mobility approach being its primary form. However, it has recently witnessed major global providers’ bankruptcies. Therefore, this study aims to identify factors driving users’ substitution of ride-hailing by “Metro+” MaaS intermodal trips. Specifically, we took ride-hailing trips as the baseline and constructed a multinomial logit (MNL) model incorporating travel-scenario factors, including trip purpose, weather, and urgency. The results show that travel-scenario factors significantly affected “Metro+” MaaS intermodal trip adoption for urban medium–long-distance trips. Users preferred MaaS intermodal trips for long-distance trips amid clear weather and no time pressure, and they favored ride-hailing in extreme weather conditions or for time-sensitive trips. Therefore, MaaS providers should emphasize travel scenarios in their marketing messaging. Finally, marginal rate of substitution (MRS) and elasticity analyses were conducted, and several strategies were proposed: (1) increasing ride-hailing availability; (2) improving transfer facilities and conditions; and (3) implementing dynamic demand matching. The study facilitates the identification of market opportunities for MaaS instead of car usage, contributes to MaaS marketing and service strategy optimization, and promotes sustainable urban transportation system development.