Denial and recidivism among sexual offenders: a meta-analysis

Purpose Despite limited and inconsistent empirical support, denial remains a salient construct in the assessment and management of individuals convicted of sexual offenses, largely due to its alignment with prevailing moral and clinical assumptions regarding responsibility, remorse and risk. Within forensic and treatment contexts, denial is frequently interpreted as an indicator of treatment resistance and elevated recidivism risk, despite substantial variability in how denial and recidivism are operationalized across studies. This meta-analysis aims to examine the association between denial of sexual offending and recidivism, while addressing methodological limitations identified in prior reviews. Design/methodology/approach Ten empirical studies meeting inclusion criteria were synthesized to estimate the relationship between denial and sexual recidivism. Findings Results indicated no statistically significant association between denial and recidivism (g = −0.31, 95% CI [−0.99, 0.37], p = 0.37). These findings suggest that denial, as currently conceptualized and measured, does not reliably predict recidivism among individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Originality/value The results underscore the need for greater methodological consistency and clearer operational definitions of denial and recidivism to better evaluate the construct’s predictive validity and inform evidence-based forensic decision-making.