Cooling the Melting Pot: How Regional Ethnic Authority May Reduce the Probability of Ethnic Violence

This thesis examines the relationship between regional authority and the onset of territorial conflict in institutionally designated ethnic regions. Existing research is inconclusive on whether regional autonomy mitigates or exacerbates ethnic conflict. This analysis uses regional-level data from 1988 to 2018 to evaluate whether higher levels of regional authority, measured with the Regional Authority Index (RAI), are associated with a reduced likelihood of territorial conflict onset. The results indicate a negative association between regional authority and conflict onset across multiple model specifications. A between-within decomposition further suggests that this relationship is primarily associated with changes in regional authority within regions over time rather than differences in average authority between regions. Disaggregating RAI demonstrates that the negative association is concentrated in self-rule factors. These findings suggest that granting greater regional authority, especially greater self-rule, may be a tool to lower the likelihood of conflict onsets.