Sanctions, border closures, and humanitarian logistics performance: the role of supply chain resilience in fragile contexts

Purpose Humanitarian supply chains in conflict-affected and fragile contexts are increasingly disrupted by politically driven constraints, such as economic sanctions and border closures. Empirical evidence explaining how these disruptions affect logistics performance is limited. This study aims to investigate the mechanisms through which political constraints influence humanitarian logistics outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on dynamic capability theory, a survey was conducted with 287 humanitarian organizations operating in politically sensitive regions of the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa. Partial least squares structural equation modeling tested a model in which humanitarian supply chain resilience capabilities mediate the effects of sanctions and border closures on logistics performance, while institutional and political complexity moderates these relationships. Findings Economic sanctions and border closures significantly reduce resilience capabilities, which in turn positively affect humanitarian logistics performance. Institutional and political complexity amplifies the negative effects of political disruptions on resilience. Research limitations/implications Humanitarian organizations and donors can strengthen aid effectiveness by investing in resilience-building strategies to mitigate the operational impact of political constraints. Originality/value This study extends dynamic capability theory to humanitarian logistics under extreme uncertainty, empirically validating resilience as a key transmission mechanism between political shocks and operational performance.