Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of the SWAN Model for Simulating Typhoon Doksuri Waves Along the Fujian Coast: Implications for Economic Decision Costs

This paper evaluates the sensitivity and calibration of the third-generation shallow-water wave model SWAN for Typhoon Doksuri (No. 202305) along the Fujian coast. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for model initialization, wind forcing, and key physical parameters. The results show that a 1-day spin-up period is sufficient to largely reduce the initial error caused by a cold start. A locally refined unstructured triangular grid was adopted, and ERA5 reanalysis winds were blended with the Holland empirical typhoon wind field to better represent extreme winds near the typhoon core. Further tests indicate that the combination of the Janssen wind input scheme, cds1 = 3.5, LTA triad wave interaction scheme, JONSWAP bottom friction scheme, and a wave-breaking parameter of 0.73 can effectively reproduce the typhoon wave process along the Fujian coast. The optimized simulations agree well with buoy observations and provide a reference for typhoon wave forecasting and coastal disaster risk assessment.