Influence operations 2.0: the evolution of social media manipulation in Southeast Asia

Given the dynamic and constantly evolving character of domestic online influence operations (IO), more knowledge of how these operations are changing is critical for efforts to counter the corrosive effects of IO on democracy and public debate. This article analyses the evolution of IO in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, using interviews with individuals involved in executing such operations. We identify a five-fold transformation. First, we trace a shift from state-dominated influence campaigns to a broader spectrum of clients. Second, we observe increased outsourcing of the operational work to private companies and freelancers. Third, we find a shift from quantity to quality in social media accounts, with IO workers operating fewer, more carefully crafted and influential profiles, alongside more limited use of automated bots. Fourth, content strategies have matured: instead of simply echoing state narratives, contemporary IO use data analytics to craft content tailored to specific audiences, often through subtle reframing of news rather than blatant disinformation. Fifth, dissemination methods have similarly shifted – from overwhelming social platforms with content to a more responsive, targeted, and data-informed approach. These changes signal a move toward more refined and strategic influence tactics. We conclude by highlighting likely causes of these transformations, and discuss implications for efforts to counter IO.