Return Period Flow Prediction with Uncertain Parameters

THE relationship between the return period of a flow volume and the return period of a rainfall producing the flow is addressed by considering the rainfall for a given return period as a constant and the parameters in the equation used to compute flow as random variables. Using transformation theory, the probability density function describing the random nature of the parameters is transformed to a probability distribution of flow volume given rainfall. Confidence intervals are computed for the flow estimates from the resulting probability density function. Results are compared to more conventional estimation techniques.