China and World Output Impact of the Hubei Lockdown During the Coronavirus Outbreak

Using a network approach, we estimate the output loss due to the lockdown of the Hubei province triggered by the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19). Based on our most conservative estimate, China suffers about 4% loss of output from labor loss, and global output drops by 1% per period due to the economic contraction in China. About 40% of the impact is indirect, coming from spillovers through the supply chain inside and outside China. (JEL E23, E24, F62)