Key result
Dynamical systems analysis of ecological momentary assessment data identified two distinct patient profiles: 154 patients whose craving was driven by cues, and 57 patients whose cue perception was driven by craving.
Why the study?
The study aimed to explore the nonlinear relationships between craving and cues by applying dynamical systems theory to ecological momentary assessment data in substance use disorders.
Observational (n=211)
Yes
Dynamical systems modeling of ecological momentary assessment data reveals two distinct patient profiles in substance use disorders based on the direction of influence between cues and craving.
DST phenotyping of cue-craving dynamics in SUD via EMA is hypothesis-generating; leaves open whether it improves relapse prediction or treatment.
Substance Use Disorders (SUD) can be conceptualized as a prospective link from cues to craving and use. To explore the nonlinear relationships between craving and cues, this study applied dynamical systems theory (DST) to ecological momentary assessment (EMA) data. Optimized linear Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variable (SARIMAX) models were used to phenotype patients with SUD (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, opiates, and cocaine), considering the potential for complex interactions between cue exposure and craving intensity in daily life. These phenotypic profiles were replicated in computational DST models to analyze the nonlinear interactions between cues, craving, and use. The study involved 211 individuals and 8,260 observations, with 154 patients fitting the SARIMAX model for the influence of cues on craving, and 57 patients fitting the SARIMAX model for a possible influence of craving on cues. Two DST models were adjusted to replicate the complex temporal dynamics of SUD based on these two directions of influence. The first DST model (adjusted to the influence of cues on craving) showed that an increase in cues leads to a rise in craving, which then diminishes both cues and craving itself, with use patterns following craving’s trajectory. This patient profile is driven by a phenomenon of “maximum cue saturation”. The second DST model (adjusted to the influence of craving on cues) demonstrated that an increase in craving was followed by an increase in cue reporting, leading to use, with use peaking and then reducing craving. This patient profile is characterized by a phenomenon of “maximum use saturation”. Both models highlight craving as an essential modulator between cues and use, opening new therapeutic avenues.
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Gauld et al. (2025) conducted an observational in Substance Use Disorders (n=211). Cue exposure and craving was evaluated on Model fit for direction of influence between cues and craving (SARIMAX models). Dynamical systems analysis of ecological momentary assessment data identified two distinct patient profiles: 154 patients whose craving was driven by cues, and 57 patients whose cue perception was driven by craving.
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