ASHP Foundation Pharmacy Forecast 2020: Strategic Planning Advice for Pharmacy Departments in Hospitals and Health Systems

The ASHP Research and Education Foundation (“the Foundation”) is pleased to present the eighth edition of the annual Pharmacy Forecast. We are again pleased to disseminate the Pharmacy Forecast through AJHP, providing readers with easy access to the report. The editorial staff of AJHP has provided substantial support for this publication, and we appreciate their assistance. The Pharmacy Forecast is a vital component of the Foundation’s efforts to advance pharmacy practice leadership, and the Foundation appreciates the many pharmacists and others who have contributed to the David A. Zilz Leaders for the Future fund, which provides the resources to develop the report. The Foundation is also grateful to Omnicell for their support of the Zilz fund, which has made the Pharmacy Forecast possible. The Pharmacy Forecast could not be created without the contributions of the report editor, founding editor, members of the Advisory Committee, Forecast Panelists who responded to the forecast survey, and chapter authors. The Foundation is indebted to those individuals who have helped make the 2020 edition a success. Over the past 7 years, the Pharmacy Forecast has provided insight into emerging trends and phenomena that have impacted the practice of pharmacy and the health of patients in health systems. The value of the report, however, is defined by its use by health-system pharmacists and health-system pharmacy leaders as they use the report to inform their strategic planning efforts. The Pharmacy Forecast is not intended to be a quantitatively or even qualitatively (directionally) accurate prediction of future events. Rather, the report is, at its core, a provocative stimulant for the thinking, discussion, and planning that must take place in every hospital and health system in order for those organizations to succeed in their mission of caring for patients and advancing the profession of pharmacy. Some may disagree with the opinions of the Forecast Panelists or the positions taken by individual chapter authors with respect to their vision of future events. That is not only acceptable, it is desirable. If you believe the predictions discussed in the Pharmacy Forecast are not correct, it follows that you have a different opinion of what the future holds or how future events will shape the healthcare system and the care we provide. As long as you articulate those differing opinion in the context of your own organization’s strategic planning process and chart a course for your organization that is consistent with your beliefs, then the Pharmacy Forecast has met its objective of encouraging planning efforts of health systems. We welcome your comments on this new edition of the Pharmacy Forecast. Suggestions for future forecasts can be sent to any of the forecast editors through the Foundation’s Pharmacy Forecast website at http://www.ashpfoundation.org/pharmacyforecast and will be considered for future editions. Creation of the Pharmacy Forecast 2020 report was supported by an unrestricted grant from Omnicell, Inc., to the David A. Zilz Leaders for the Future Fund of the ASHP Research and Education Foundation. An audio interview that supplements the information in this article will be available at www.ajhpvoices.org. Lee C. Vermeulen, B.S.Pharm., M.S., FCCP, FFIP, Chief Efficiency Officer, UK HealthCare, and Professor of Medicine and Pharmacy, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY. Address correspondence to Mr. Vermeulen (lee.vermeulen@uky.edu). Health-system pharmacy leaders face a wide range of challenges—from serving the needs of an increasing number of patients with fewer and fewer resources, to meeting the needs of staff who are expected to work harder, month after month, in the face of increasing complexity of care, to struggling to point their departments in a direction that will lead to success while navigating the seemingly endless stream of change. All of these challenges are made more acute in the absence of a robust, deliberately developed and maintained strategic plan. Without a strategic plan, leaders are forced to hastily react rather than thoughtfully respond to each new challenge, without the benefit of a guide making the best course clear. Forecasting future events is an important exercise that can help leaders create well-informed strategic plans. The 2020 Pharmacy Forecast is intended to assist with strategic planning efforts by health-system leaders. The methods used to develop the 2020 Pharmacy Forecast were similar to those used in the previous editions, drawing on concepts described in James Surowiecki’s book The Wisdom of Crowds.1 According to Surowiecki, the collective opinions of “wise crowds”—groups of diverse individuals in which each participant’s input is provided independently, drawing from his or her own locally informed points of view—can be more informative than the opinion of any individual participant. This process is particularly valuable when addressing phenomena that are not well suited to quantitative predictive methods. A critical requirement for successfully creating crowd-based knowledge is establishing a systematic method of combining individual beliefs into a collective opinion—the Pharmacy Forecast uses a survey of carefully selected pharmacy leaders to derive our The 2020 Pharmacy Forecast Advisory in the the of survey by of and they will health-system pharmacy in the That was then and through an in a of each with on which the survey was of survey was to the selected and was to and face As in the survey Panelists selected by ASHP staff after by the leaders of the ASHP were to individuals to have in health-system knowledge of trends and new in the and the to the The of the Forecast in was deliberately in an to opinions from a range of pharmacy leaders than in past and the of the Forecast this The forecast survey to each of the in survey and the of those in the were to their on their knowledge of in their not on their of The was carefully the of the to a were to a the of those or to This we to a of strategic planning with our to respond to events as As you will in the of the Pharmacy Forecast by and James events and to health systems. it is not to be it is to be and strategic an or can be to successfully respond when events and for those events is an to survey in this we the of the and provided events as We then to a from to how they their their and their are to successfully respond to events that will in the The of predictions the of the method is on the of the to the forecast it is important to the and of the A of were to the forecast were from from the in of the in practice for than years, and in practice for than from of in described their practice as a hospital or health while of were from or health and from from similar to the survey, that their organizations diverse health or care of pharmacy of care of care of and care of of the the of pharmacy or of pharmacy and of A of their as and described their as The of leaders and at and with this was not different from that of the of that their organization was not a hospital from in of were by with or more from in and of were from of than to in the of the Forecast was in an to a more of This we again a of individuals and at from every with the of and in 7 were not in the previous As in in each from in the and to in the and to the of survey in we in the of from each and the in this the 2020 survey, every was by a of from a of in Forecast by on on Forecast by on on The the contributions of many individuals who have made the 2020 Pharmacy Forecast a success. 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