Golden age of gas and its impact on the world energy, the global carbon cycle and climate

Global and regional resource and environmental problems of production and use of unconventional gas (UG) are studied. Estimations for world and national reserves of various kinds of UG are presented. The dynamics of the gas share in total energy consumption and thermal power generation around the world is analyzed. Projections of the world production of conventional gas and UG are proposed. Variations in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and the corresponding changes in average global air temperature are calculated for various scenarios suggesting unconventional gas substitution of different energy sources. The possible consequences of expected climate changes for Russia’s power industry are analyzed. It is shown that, despite the uncertainty in the estimates of the economic and environmental consequences of shale gas (SG) production, its use, according to the available resource estimates, can make it possible to solve global and regional problems associated with energy (import substitution) and environment protection (replacing the less clean coal fuel). However, the development of the huge global resources of this type of fuel can have a significant effect on the chemical and thermal radiative balance of the Earth’s atmosphere, and it must be noted that the climatic effect of carbon dioxide emissions from the UG combustion greatly exceeds the consequences of methane leakage during its production. In order to sustain the stability of the global climate system, the development of the world’s large UG resources must be accompanied by an equivalent reduction in the use of coal. This is the only way for UG to become a safe energy bridge to the future, able to keep the climate system at the threshold of critical values. Direct effects of possible climatic changes on the territory of Russia for the domestic energy complex are estimated as more positive than adverse, mainly due to lower energy costs for space heating.