Reconciling Trajectory Ensemble Receptor Model Results with Emissions

Several approaches have been developed that use ensembles of air parcel back trajectories to identify likely source regions for contaminants observed at a downwind receptor site. Although the results of these models have appeared to provide results that agree with known sources, there have not been efforts to make direct comparisons between the results of such analyses with emissions inventories. In this paper, the results of residence time analysis (RTA) of data from Underhill, VT and from Brigantine, NJ are compared to the average estimated emissions of coal- and oil-fired power plants. Excellent correspondence was found between the areas of highest probability identified in the trajectory ensemble analyses and the averaged emission intensities.