Habitat suitability modelling of red-billed quelea ( Quelea quelea ) in Malawi, southern Africa

The distribution of pest species like Q. quelea, a major threat to cereal crops, may shift due to climate change, requiring predictive modelling to guide management strategies. This study used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict current and future suitable habitats for Q. quelea in Malawi, incorporating nine bioclimatic variables, elevation, and soil type. Model performance was robust (Area under the ROC curve, AUC = 0.813). Key variables influencing distribution included maximum temperature of the warmest month (30.1%), elevation (19.1%), and temperature seasonality (16.2%). Currently, 12,880.8 km2 is highly suitable, 47,421.5 km2 moderately suitable, and 57,610.2 km2 exhibits low suitability. Under future climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5), moderately and highly suitable habitats are projected to expand, especially under SSP5–8.5. These findings suggest increased risks to agriculture in Malawi’s Central and Southern regions. The study offers essential insights for developing adaptive management, early warning systems, and control strategies to safeguard food security.