Politics or Technical Criteria? The Determinants of Infrastructure Investments in Brazil

To what extent do public infrastructure projects respond to political pressures or developmental imperatives? Do these projects reflect a technical strategy aimed at upgrading economic productivity or the political distribution of public goods that rewards certain voters or political actors? This paper analyses the Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC), an $817 billion-dollar Brazilian infrastructure programme with a multi-method research design pairing in-country interviews and analysis of an original, municipal-level dataset. I conclude that my case study reflects a mixture of political and technical factors, which mirrors the competing influence of technocratic bureaucrats and politically-driven politicians during the project selection process. Despite explicitly targeting larger municipalities with infrastructure deficiencies, the programme still rewarded core-voting districts supporting the winning PT (Workers Party/Partido dos Trabalhadores) presidential candidates. A secondary result finds older municipalities with greater bureaucratic capacity were better positioned to successfully submit projects for federal funding.