Refugee flows and the economic-security nexus in Europe: evidence from military spending, growth, and political stability

Many regions across the globe have experienced a significant rise in the number of displaced individuals seeking refuge and asylum. Europe has faced growing inflows of refugees due to its proximity to Africa and Asia, which are key sources of large migration waves. This study investigates the impact of refugee inflows on political stability, economic growth, and both military and civilian expenditures across 35 European countries over the period 2000–2024. The analysis focuses on European regions directly affected by refugee movements, as well as northern European countries, while accounting for key events related to the issue. The results suggest that refugee flows can heighten security concerns, leading to increased defense spending, while also revealing some negative effects on the host country’s GDP growth and political stability.