Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU

I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II–2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP rations, signaling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance higher budget deficits in the market.