It’s not just the economy: The psychological well-being of an electorate also matters for election outcomes

The prediction of election outcomes is of widespread interest. Election outcomes are influenced by a variety of factors, but largely unexamined in past research is how psychological characteristics of the electorate influence the results of actual elections. The present study investigated whether the optimism of an electorate predicted the outcomes of the 2010 US House of Representatives elections (N = 435) from measures ascertained in 2009 for congressional districts, controlling for an incumbent’s years of service and his or her political party, as well as 2009 median household income in these districts. As expected for midterm election, Republicans and longer-serving incumbents were more likely to win re-election. Districts with higher median household incomes were also more likely to re-elect incumbents. The optimism of a congressional district additionally predicted election outcomes. Districts where people evaluated their own lives in more hopeful terms were more likely to re-elect incumbents.