The Partisan Consequences of Majority-Minority Redistricting in the South, 1992 and 1994

This paper demonstrates that the creation of majority-minority districts was no more than an indirect cause of Democratic losses in 1992 and 1994, and the second-order effect of losing familiar voters was more important than the first-order effect of a reduced black constituency. Further, it demonstrates that a pro-GOP surge, independent of redistricting, was the critical factor without which neither new voters nor the reduced black population would have defeated many incumbent Democrats. These results integrate existing theory about voter behavior, the influence of short-term forces, incumbency dynamics, and structural adjustments such as redistricting to formulate a fuller account of the losses.