The adoption of artificial intelligence in an emerging economy: A TOE-RBV perspective from Colombian manufacturing

Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to transform industrial productivity, but evidence on its adoption in emerging economies remains scarce. This paper characterizes AI adoption in the Colombian manufacturing sector using census data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) for the 2019–2020 period, comprising 12,765 firm-year observations. Results reveal that 6.1% of manufacturing firms have adopted AI, of which 2.2% develop their own solutions, and 4.4% acquire third-party applications. The analysis, organized according to a TOE-RBV framework, identifies patterns consistent with evidence from advanced economies: larger firms adopt at significantly higher rates; innovative and patent-holding firms show substantially higher adoption probabilities; and there is marked concentration in technologically intensive sectors and in departments or geographical regions with greater economic activity. These findings, from the period prior to the emergence of generative AI, provide a baseline for understanding the diffusion of general-purpose technology in middle-income contexts and can inform policies to promote digital transformation in the manufacturing sector.