Why Change Alignment Strategy? How Supply Chain Topology Shapes Alignment in 5G and Semiconductors

This article examines the strategic decision‐making processes behind the shift from hedging to asymmetrical alignment in foreign policy, a crucial but understudied area in international relations in advanced technology sectors. While traditional theories suggest that states employ hedging to manage risk between balancing and bandwagoning, these paradigms are increasingly inadequate for explaining the behavior of smaller powers amidst intensified U.S.–China competition. We propose that supply chain topology—the structural configuration of technological interdependencies—critically influences whether states maintain or abandon hedging strategies. Investigating Japan and South Korea's foreign policy regarding the 5G and semiconductor sectors, this study reveals how states navigate varying levels of geoeconomic vulnerability. Our findings illuminate how a hierarchical topology, characterized by nonsubstitutable chokepoints, triggers anticipatory compliance as a risk‐reduction strategy for industrial survival. In contrast, a horizontal topology allows for greater strategic autonomy and the persistence of dual‐alignment. By exploring the interplay between structural power and sectoral dynamics, this research offers new insights into the conditions under which states pivot from established hedging postures toward definitive alignment strategies in the era of techno‐geopolitics.